Animalll2003lll (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)

and it's most likely that the present rises in temperature, between 1900-1940 and 1970-1998 are just natural, not driven by human CO2 emissions. the curve doesn't show any kind of special response, different from previous fluctuations. it's behaving totally normal. and we're still exactly in the middle of the +0.5C of middle ages and low of -0.6C of 18th century. so calm down everyone :) and read about Gore's misleads!

Animalll2003lll (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)

ok so I finally found a good graph about it, and it confirms what you people were telling me: CO2 has a negligible warming effect when you increase it passed 300ppmv (which we already passed): it can only increase temperatures by 2.5 C max. that's not very dangerous. look it up: (google image : 'Greenhouse co2 greenhouse X4 png' ...and pick the logarythmic curves)so conclusion: the effect of human produced CO2 is not as dramatic as told in Gore's movie for example. it's max 2.5 C.

Animalll2003lll (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)

last news: apparently, doubling CO2 (from 280ppmv to 560ppmv) would increase global temperature by 1.5 to 4.5 degrees celsius.humans already brought CO2 from 280ppmv to 380ppmv. so if we go on for another 100ppmv it might be quite dangerous. but we might not have enough oil to produce another 100ppmv. so it might not be so dangerous. don't know. tired.

Animalll2003lll (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)

after having said all that, I have to state something that's a bit out of topic, but not completely. it's oil shortages. oil shortages is the reason why we need to 'go green'. people talk a lot about GW, because it's scary, but they don't realize the danger is even closer: it's oil shortages. everyone agrees we have to move away from oil, and we're going to make gains if do it fast. look at GM today: that's what will happen to all product using lots of oil. we have to be smart and adapt fast.

Animalll2003lll (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)

the public deserves to be better informed before voting for policies to counter GW, like Kyoto. all that fuss might be in a large part wishful thinking---from both sides. some people are too quickly prone to fall for the 'protect mother earth' without actually asking for precise infos (gore's movie is misleading though and lots of people thought the graphs were proof)---but many others won't look at the data just because they're too scared there might be a link. so both parties need more INFO.

Animalll2003lll (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)

it might be a drama if the temperature rises much more, like 6 degrees. but so far we can't predict this is going to happen. not as long as we lack a precise model for how much CO2 drives warming. very hard to know. so conclusion, we can't know just by watching the graphs. we need some theoretical calculations about CO2 properties in certain environnment, to predict when and how much CO2 drives warming.SO CONCLUSION: we deserve more information than Al Gore's graphs before buying in for Kyoto

Animalll2003lll (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)

the globe is presently warming, but we can't know if it's because of the few more ppmv of CO2 that we added ourselves. the curve just isn't going crazy up--not at all. MAYBE IN THE FUTURE IT WILL, but we can't know for sure now. maybe that above a certain concentration, CO2 has more effect, but as I said before, the temperature managed to come down when levels of CO2 were much higher than nowadays. and the temperature has already been higher, during the middle ages. so it may not be a drama.

Animalll2003lll (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)

but maybe it had an insignificant effect on warming.today we didn't feel the effect of CO2 yet, if there is any. the temperature curve behaves totally normally so far. we are still between the last peak of 0.5 C (in the middle ages) and the last low of -0.6 C around the 18th century. we're at 0.3 C, and the curve doesn't go crazy up, not more than it has been doing before, when humans were not yet releasing CO2. So we don't have any evidence that CO2 is warming the globe.

Animalll2003lll (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)

BUT, what we can see is that the levels of CO2 have been way higher 50M yrs ago and before. and the temperature eventually still managed to come down from 24C average to 12C average, many times. so IN SPITE OF CO2, FOR OTHER REASONS (like solar activity), the temperature could come down. but since we don't know the impact of solar acticvity etc, we can't guess HOW STRONG CO2 was pulling the temperature up. maybe solar activity dropped dramatically and CO2 had an huge effect but wasn't enough;

Animalll2003lll (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)

3/ since humans are living on this planet (-5M yrs), and even a long time before that (-50M yrs), CO2 levels were never above 500ppmv. in fact it's always oscilating between 180 or 200 ppmv(during ice ages) and 280 and 300 ppmv (during warm periods). today, since the 50s, it has been rising exponentially from 280 to 360ppmv, obviously because of humans. now what's hard to guess is how much that new induction of CO2 will affect the warming. it's hard to guess because we can't 'try to see'.